On February 28th, an article titled “China plans the end of hated one-child policy” was published in The Times newspaper. This article tells us about how some Chinese government officials are suggesting putting an end to its one-child policy almost 50 years after it was started by Prime minister Deng Xiaoping.
This policy was put in place because of the great baby boom during the time of Mao Zedong, when the people of China were told to have as many children as possible “in order to bury the U.S. in a human wave”.
Although this policy might have reduced China’s population and brought it under control, its prolonged use will certainly have many far-reaching consequences for the people of China in the future. If the one child-policy is not put to an end, then it could lead China’s population to the completely opposite extreme of population - having a decreasing population.
Firstly, using some simple mathematics, we can easily deduce that China’s population is sure to decline. If the government tells each couple (2 people) to have one child each, the population will be halved after each generation. Furthermore, not everyone will decide to have children, with many urban and affluent citizens opting to stay single to have more time for their careers. Although China’s birth rate is actually 1.8 children per couple instead of the actual 1, this number is set to decrease further. The reason for it being at 1.8 is because some couples flout the rules. As China progresses, it would become easier for the government to keep track of those who flout these rules. This would only further reduce the number of children born.
This reduced economy would greatly affect China because as soon as the baby boom generation of the 1950s retires, they would need to be supported by the later and much smaller generation. This would cause this particular generation to bear responsibility of their two parents and four grandparents. This will also take a toll on China’s overall economy.
The second big impact that this policy will have is to the gender balance. The Chinese parents have a preference for sons and if their first child turns out to be a daughter, they might resort to disposing of her illegally so as to be able to have a second child which they hope to be a son. In the long run, the vast number of Chinese men will have not have sufficient Chinese women to get married to. This would also cause the population to decrease.
Also, the couples with only one child will tend to dote on and pamper their child. In the future, these spoilt children may decide not to take care of and support their parents.
However, it is not too late yet.
This policy was put in place because of the great baby boom during the time of Mao Zedong, when the people of China were told to have as many children as possible “in order to bury the U.S. in a human wave”.
Although this policy might have reduced China’s population and brought it under control, its prolonged use will certainly have many far-reaching consequences for the people of China in the future. If the one child-policy is not put to an end, then it could lead China’s population to the completely opposite extreme of population - having a decreasing population.
Firstly, using some simple mathematics, we can easily deduce that China’s population is sure to decline. If the government tells each couple (2 people) to have one child each, the population will be halved after each generation. Furthermore, not everyone will decide to have children, with many urban and affluent citizens opting to stay single to have more time for their careers. Although China’s birth rate is actually 1.8 children per couple instead of the actual 1, this number is set to decrease further. The reason for it being at 1.8 is because some couples flout the rules. As China progresses, it would become easier for the government to keep track of those who flout these rules. This would only further reduce the number of children born.
This reduced economy would greatly affect China because as soon as the baby boom generation of the 1950s retires, they would need to be supported by the later and much smaller generation. This would cause this particular generation to bear responsibility of their two parents and four grandparents. This will also take a toll on China’s overall economy.
The second big impact that this policy will have is to the gender balance. The Chinese parents have a preference for sons and if their first child turns out to be a daughter, they might resort to disposing of her illegally so as to be able to have a second child which they hope to be a son. In the long run, the vast number of Chinese men will have not have sufficient Chinese women to get married to. This would also cause the population to decrease.
Also, the couples with only one child will tend to dote on and pamper their child. In the future, these spoilt children may decide not to take care of and support their parents.
However, it is not too late yet.
If China decides to abolish this policy now, some of these disastrous effects can be alleviated. Its population can be prevented from reducing drastically.
However, the majority of the Chinese officials see this in a different light and feel that this policy should remain, for fear of overpopulation again in the future.
Do they really need to experience these consequences before they finally realize? By then it will probably be too late.
Sources
1)http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/china/article3451974.ece
2)http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3452460.ece
3)The Straits Times, Thursday 6th March, "No change to one-child policy"
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